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Introduction.
This carries on from the previous post with a much more detailed analysis of the data from the BHGS and ADLG rankings.
It is a more structured analysis using database techniques to correct the data (where possible) and tackle the quirks of the two data sets.
It aims to quantify the number of regular players, those attending infrequently, those who stop playing and also how many players haven't played since Covid.
1. Contents
- Summary
- Data Considerations
- Findings
- Conclusions
- Appendix 1: Annual trends
- Appendix 2: Pattern Analysis
- Appendix 3: New & Returning Players
- Appendix 4: Single Event & Former Players
2. Summary
BHGS data (2022-25) GB & Ireland
- 168 players (on average) took part in at least one event each year.
- 239 different players took part.
- 103 players attended at least one event each year.
- 44 players attended just one event during 2022-25.
- 10 of these were new players in 2022-24 (all GB) who hadn’t returned by 2025.
ADLG ELO data (2009-25) GB & Ireland
- 343 different players took part.
- 104 had not played since 2021.
- 78 were GB players and the balance of 26 were from Ireland.
- 35 GB players attended just one event before 2019 and none thereafter.
Estimate of “One-Off” players (2019-25)
- 45 (35+10) GB players attended one ADLG event and never attended a second: some 13% of the ADLG ELO player pool (or about 1 in 8).
3. Data Considerations
3.1 Sources & Corrections
What follows is the results of an analysis of the data sets from the latest BHGS (13 Dec) & ADLG ELO (15 Dec) rankings. Both data sets were corrected to account for errors and to improve consistency:
- Many BHGS players had incorrect or missing ADLG ELO numbers.
- Some player names weren’t spelt correctly.
- Some UK resident players were incorrectly assigned elsewhere in the ADLG ELO set.
3.2 Data Quirks
The BHGS data records events and time based data whilst the ADLG ELO data records games played.
Unless stated otherwise all data is based on the BHGS data for 2002-25 which has been linked to the ADLG ELO set such that all BHGS records are visible before any filters are applied.
Two ADLG ELO records are for a regular doubles team. The BHGS data set treats them as four separate entries. This complicates comparing BHGS and ADLG ELO totals: when linked to the BHGS data some high level totals increase by two.
3.3 Definitions
To analyse new & returning players it was necessary to use the following definitions when dealing with those who had played in just one BHGS event:
- New players are those with fewer than six games in their ADLG ELO record, that is played in three or five games and so equivalent to one event. It was assumed that the one event was in the BHGS data.
- Returning players had more than six games in their ADLG ELO record equivalent to at least two events, one of which was assumed to be in the BHGS data.
4. Findings
4.1 Player Pool
- There’s a pool of 302 players in the BHGS data (after correction).
- It consists of 239 GB & Ireland players, 35 overseas players and 28 who did not have a matching record in the ADLG ELO data.
4.2 Annual Attendance Trends & Patterns
- There’s a strong core of 103 players who attended at least one BHGs event each year during 2022-25 (Appendix 1).
- There was a significant churn of 24-34 players each year amongst the remaining 136 players; with players often taking a one year break (Appendix 2).
- A significant number of players stopped playing each year and few returned after taking a break of more than one year in 2022-25.
- The 161 strong "class of" 2022 best illustrates the long term trends. 103 (64%) played every year to 2025, but a number stopped playing every year and did not return (17 in 2022, 14 in 2023, and 10 in 2024). The balance of 17 took a break before returning.
4.3 New & Returning Players (BHGS data)
- This analysis looked at events unlike the previous analysis that looked at who had played each year.
- 44 (18% of 239) BHGS players attended just one event in 2022-25 (Appendix 3). Of these 25 (10% of 239) attended one event in 2022-24 and hadn't played a second by 2025.
- The 25 players break down into 10 new and 15 returning players (see Definitions above). All 10 were GB players.
- The 12 new players in 2025 are excluded as their future attendance is unknown.
- Clearly, some of the new & returning players are not becoming regular players (yet?).
4.4 Single Event & Former Players (from ADLG ELO data)
- There are 104 ADLG ELO players from GB & Ireland (30% of a pool of 343 including duplicates) who do not have a corresponding BHG record for 2022-25. 26 players were from Ireland.
- Of the 78 from Great Britain (22% of 343), 35 (13% of 343) had fewer than six games recorded (Appendix 4).
- Thus 35 Great Britain players tried tournament play once before 2022 never to return.
4.5 Estimated One-Offs
- The BHGS data contains 10 players (of 239) who played in one event during 2022-24 and had not returned by 2025. All of these players are from Great Britain.
- The ADLG ELO data contains 35 different players (Great Britain only) who have played the equivalent of one event (fewer than 6 games) and don’t have a corresponding BHGS record during (2022-25).
- Combining these two figures it is possible to estimate the number of players who’ve attended just one ADLG event at 45 players. This covers 2009-25 (ADLG ELO data) not just 2022-25 (BHGS data).
5. Conclusions
The years 2022 to 2025 saw between 161 to 174 players attend at least one BHGs ranking event. This is reasonably stable, but there is considerable churn with some 29-37 players changing each year.
Overall, in 2022-25, there was a pool of 239 players from Great Britain and Ireland; split 236 and 3 respectively. Of these, 103 played in all four years and 57 only played in one year. The latter reduces to 33 when the single year players for 2025 are excluded.
A significant number of players stopped playing each year. Some resumed, but few returned after taking a break of more than one year. 25 players attended just one BHGS event during 2022-24 and hadn’t returned by 2025. 10 of these were new to ADLG tournament play (4% of the BHGS player pool). 15 had played before 2022.
Analysis of the ADLG ELO data identified a further 35 players from Great Britain with just one recorded event before 2022. These, combined with the 10 new to BHGS events in 2022-24, indicates that some 45 players had attended one ADLG event and not returned (13% of the ADLG ELO player pool of 343).
Appendix 1: Annual trends
How player attendance varied in BHGS events
| Criteria | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From previous year | - | 131 | 134 | 142 | 136 |
| Fresh players | - | 37 | 17 | 24 | - |
| Returning players | - | - | 12 | 8 | - |
| Total | 161 | 168 | 163 | 174 | 168 |
| Didn't play next year | 30 | 34 | 21 | - | 28 |
Notes:
- Figures are for players with an ADLG ELO ID.
- GB & Ireland only with corrections for the wrong ELO country
- 2002 to 09 Oct, others from Dec.
- "Fresh" means not in the 2022-25 data set for any of the previous years.
- 2022 was the first full year post Covid.
- 343 GB & Ireland players have an ADLG ELO ID after corrections.
Attendance trends
| Yrs played | 2022-25 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 24% |
| 2 | 40 | 17% |
| 3 | 39 | 16% |
| 4 | 103 | 43% |
| Player pool | 239 | 100% |
Appendix 2: Pattern Analysis
How long do players take a break for?
| Pattern | 1 Yr | 2 Yrs | 3 Yrs | 4 Yrs | Gap Yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ||||
| 2022-23 | 14 | ||||
| 2022-24 | 10 | ||||
| 2022-25 | 103 | ||||
| 2022-23 & 25 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2022 & 24 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2022 & 24-25 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2022 & 25 | 1 | 2 | |||
| 2023 | 13 | ||||
| 2023-24 | 3 | ||||
| 2023-25 | 18 | ||||
| 2023 & 25 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2024 | 3 | ||||
| 2024-25 | 15 | ||||
| 2025 | 24 | ||||
| Totals | 57 | 41 | 39 | 103 |
Notes:
- Figures are for attendance at one or more events in a given year.
- Yr figures will not tally with the "New & Returning" table: some played in more than one event.
- 1 player from Ireland attended in 2022 & 25, another in 2023 & one in 2025.
Appendix 3: New & Returning Players
How many played in just one BHGS event?
| 2019-21 (ELO) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returning (Active) | 8 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 9% |
| New (Inactive) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9% |
| Total | 11 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 18% |
Notes
- All 44 players above attended just one BHGS event in 2022-25.
- Active players (19-21) defined as a minimum of six ADLG ELO games (two events).
- 15 returning players played in 22-24 but hadn't played again by 2025 (1 from Ireland).
- Share is the percentage of 239 total BHGS players in 2022-25.
Appendix 4: Single Event & Former Players
How many played in just one event?
| 2019-25 | All | One-Offs | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB & Ireland (ELO) | 341 | 69 | 20% |
| Without BHGS record | 104 | 43 | 41% |
| GB only | 78 | 35 | 45% |
| Ireland | 26 | 8 | 31% |
Notes
- Based on ADLG ELO data.
- One-offs defined as fewer than 6 games; equivalent to one BHGS event.
- Those without a 2022-25 record are former players.
- Total of 341 does not account for duplicates in BHGS data.
1 comment :
I received this from a follower who wanted me to post this on their behalf.
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I've just read your latest blog post which has an interesting analysis of the ADLG competition scene. Although not exactly the same subject, I have some thoughts on the current Ancient & Medieval competition scene.
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When I stopped competitive gaming I quickly realised how insular the "Ancients" competition scene is. To qualify that slightly, the issue seems to be with systems not run by figure manufacturers.
Manufactures like Warlord (Bolt Action) and Battlefront (Flames of War) have a significant presence in the hobby, at shows, and on social media; promoting their games, selling figures, and attracting new players.
Contrast that with "Ancients" rule sets focused on competitions. Demo games are very rare at shows. Rules authors seldom promote their rules in person and are not very active on social media. Yes, games like ADLG, MEG, and DBMM have Facebook pages and a forum but there seems no real effort to promote the game beyond these online communities.
I remember, a long time ago now, when DBM(M) players were disappointed that copies of the rules and army lists were not available at shows because no trader thought it worthwhile stocking them!
How can you attract new players, or hope to bring back players that have fallen from the fold, with this level of support? Word of mouth will work to a certain degree, but it's not the answer to promoting a game system; especially today.
Of course, if the rules authors are not willing, or able, to promote the game externally then it's down to the players (such as madaxeman/Tim Porter), but that takes time and effort when they are probably more interested in playing the game. Quite naturally competition players do not want to discuss the games they are playing with the general public whilst they are competing.
The lack of a credible YouTube presence is another issue. Contrast that with the likes of Bolt Action, or Star Wars Legion, where you don’t have to look very hard to find professionally produced ‘how to play’ videos. Also, look at the way The Two Fat Lardies (TFL) promote their games. They are very active at shows, lots of social media presence and there are many opportunities to engage with their games generally.
Obviously TFL are not focused on competitions, but they offer a useful example of how things can be done. There’s a real engagement with the public and the general wargaming community which you just don’t get with the current "Ancients" rule sets.
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