ADLG: Super Armies, The Final Solution

Summary

Since 2018 I have always answered no to the question are there any "super" armies in Art de la Guerre (ADLG)? After the thorough statistical testing described here that's still the case, but for entirely different reasons.

Until today I thought, given a high enough number of games, any variation in army performance (efficacy) could be ascribed to the inherent strength of the list and nothing else. That's not the case.

Chance genuinely evens out, and what is left behind is real and not chance - but that leftover is a tangle of list strength, player skill and popularity. The statistical tests only measure its size, but cannot pull the tangle apart. This applies to all the data I have available. More data will not help.

The answer is definitive, but it's case unproven. Therefore this post is the final piece to look at the issue of "super" armies in ADLG. Time to move on.

Those of a statistically nervous disposition read on at their peril.

ADLG: V4 Six Years On

Introduction

I’ve been looking forward to writing this post for a while, and this week I finally can: the online database now shows more recorded Art de la Guerre (ADLG) V4 games than V3. Each version has surpassed 20,000 competitive games from events worldwide.

Contents

Having reached this significant landmark, it seems a good time to:

• look at the history of ADLG,
• highlight any differences between V3 & V4,
• revisit the super army debate,
• discus what's happening with V5.

Looking To The Future

Background

This week I finally sorted out an issue with the new administrator of one of my occupational pensions. I wanted confirmation that my wife was the sole beneficiary. They repeatedly sent blank forms for me to nominate her, but I did this years ago. They should have a record of this.

The customer support was patchy. After yet another form arrived and the person on the phone could only say "the computer says no", I raised a formal complaint which was sorted in five days; in my favour and to my satisfaction.

What's this got to do with this august blog. Well, it set me thinking. I'm not getting any younger and I began to wonder whether I should save this blog for posterity? After all I've put a lot of work into it, especially this year.

Read on if you'd like to know what I've done.