ADLG: Good And Bad V4 Lists

Background

Recently, I wrote my final piece on the subject of "super" armies in Art de la Guerre (ADLG). The main points were:

From a visual, and statistically naive, analysis I concluded that there are no "super" armies in ADLG. By "super" I mean armies that offer all players an advantage.

My underlying hypothesis was that as games increase, luck, player skill and list choice even out, so efficacy tends to 50%, leaving only inherent list differences (if any).

More rigorous testing showed that luck does even out. What is left behind is real and not chance, but that leftover is a tangle of list strength, player skill and popularity. The tests can only measure its size, not pull the tangle apart.

My hypothesis was only partially right. In a perverse way my initial conclusion still holds, but for totally different reasons. There still aren't any "super" armies because, given the data available, it's impossible to prove or disprove their exstance. It's case unproven.

One of the "byproducts" of the rigorous testing was a list of 20 (yes just 20) statistically different armies (good and bad) in ADLG V4. At first I didn't see it as particularly useful: the differences could be due to any combination of factors not just an army's inherent performance.

Now I've had time to reflect, I think the lists may be of more general interest; not least because they contain a few surprises and people do love a good list or two.

ADLG: Super Armies, The Final Solution

Summary

Since 2018 I have always answered no to the question are there any "super" armies in Art de la Guerre (ADLG)? After the thorough statistical testing described here that's still the case, but for entirely different reasons.

Until today I thought, given a high enough number of games, any variation in army performance (efficacy) could be ascribed to the inherent strength of the list and nothing else. That's not the case.

Chance genuinely evens out, and what is left behind is real and not chance - but that leftover is a tangle of list strength, player skill and popularity. The statistical tests only measure its size, but cannot pull the tangle apart. This applies to all the data I have available. More data will not help.

The answer is definitive, but it's case unproven. Therefore this post is the final piece to look at the issue of "super" armies in ADLG. Time to move on.

Those of a statistically nervous disposition read on at their peril.

ADLG: V4 Six Years On

Introduction

I’ve been looking forward to writing this post for a while, and this week I finally can: the online database now shows more recorded Art de la Guerre (ADLG) V4 games than V3. Each version has surpassed 20,000 competitive games from events worldwide.

Contents

Having reached this significant landmark, it seems a good time to:

• look at the history of ADLG,
• highlight any differences between V3 & V4,
• revisit the super army debate,
• discus what's happening with V5.