ADLG: Size Matters

In my last post I looked at army performance under version 4 (V4) of Art de la Guerre (ADLG).   I made the point that, as far as the data analysis goes, size matters:

• For V3, with 40,545 records, It's easy to see the long term trend: namely that the more an army is used, the more its performance (efficacy in ADLG-speak) tends towards 50%.
• For V4, with 8,675 records, the situation is less clear and probably will be until the number of records has increased significantly.

The penny drops
Whilst writing the previous post I had cause to revisit the data sets for V3 from 2018 & 2020 and check a few things.  It then occurred to me that I might be able to provide specific examples of the "50% trend" by comparing 2018 with 2020.

If you're not a fan of chart and data posts, even if they are about wargaming, look away now.  Otherwise read on!

ADLG: V4 Super Armies?

I plan to investigate this thorny question in detail, but not for another 6-9 months.  I'll explain the reason for the delay later.  However, I thought you'd like to see an early analysis.  But first some background.

The answer under V3?
In 2018 and 2020 I used the Art de la Guerre (ADLG) results database to probe the perennial question of super armies.  In early 2021 I used the same data to look at the performance of the Yuan Chinese following their success at the World Championships from 2016 to 2019.

The above chart shows that the more an army is used, the more its performance (efficacy in ADLG-speak) tends towards 50%.  So in short, the answer is no: there aren't any super armies in ADLG.  Remember, by super armies I mean armies that will have a high degree of success regardless of who is using it.

15 mm Medieval Baggage Tents

One of the things I found during my recent “sort out” was a pair of very old resin tents. They were hidden away in the toolbox containing my Italian Wars army.

They are old models and pre-date the wonderful Baueda range. The sculpting is basic. The castings are a bit rough too. Nonetheless, I fancied painting something different.

So I removed the old groundwork, sanded down the castings to get as smooth a finish as I could and set about turning a sow's ear into a silk purse (if that's possible). Here are the results:

Moving House

My wife and I have been trying to move house for almost all of this year, but the whole process in England is a nightmare.  As I write, we're still not certain our purchase will ever happen.

One of the by-products is that we have spent, and continue to spend, considerable amounts of time looking at our possessions and thinking “do we need this?” and “how are we going to move that?”.

Now add in the factor that this is a very troubling set of questions for a wargamer, and you should be able to imagine how stressful the entire process is.