ADLG: Good And Bad V4 Lists

Background

Recently, I wrote my final piece on the subject of "super" armies in Art de la Guerre (ADLG). The main points were:

From a visual, and statistically naive, analysis I concluded that there are no "super" armies in ADLG. By "super" I mean armies that offer all players an advantage.

My underlying hypothesis was that as games increase, luck, player skill and list choice even out, so efficacy tends to 50%, leaving only inherent list differences (if any).

More rigorous testing showed that luck does even out. What is left behind is real and not chance, but that leftover is a tangle of list strength, player skill and popularity. The tests can only measure its size, not pull the tangle apart.

My hypothesis was only partially right. In a perverse way my initial conclusion still holds, but for totally different reasons. There still aren't any "super" armies because, given the data available, it's impossible to prove or disprove their exstance. It's case unproven.

One of the "byproducts" of the rigorous testing was a list of 20 (yes just 20) statistically different armies (good and bad) in ADLG V4. At first I didn't see it as particularly useful: the differences could be due to any combination of factors not just an army's inherent performance.

Now I've had time to reflect, I think the lists may be of more general interest; not least because they contain a few surprises and people do love a good list or two.

ADLG: Super Armies, The Final Solution

Summary

Since 2018 I have always answered no to the question are there any "super" armies in Art de la Guerre (ADLG)? After the thorough statistical testing described here that's still the case, but for entirely different reasons.

Until today I thought, given a high enough number of games, any variation in army performance (efficacy) could be ascribed to the inherent strength of the list and nothing else. That's not the case.

Chance genuinely evens out, and what is left behind is real and not chance - but that leftover is a tangle of list strength, player skill and popularity. The statistical tests only measure its size, but cannot pull the tangle apart. This applies to all the data I have available. More data will not help.

The answer is definitive, but it's case unproven. Therefore this post is the final piece to look at the issue of "super" armies in ADLG. Time to move on.

Those of a statistically nervous disposition read on at their peril.

ADLG: V4 Six Years On

Introduction

I’ve been looking forward to writing this post for a while, and this week I finally can: the online database now shows more recorded Art de la Guerre (ADLG) V4 games than V3. Each version has surpassed 20,000 competitive games from events worldwide.

Contents

Having reached this significant landmark, it seems a good time to:

• look at the history of ADLG,
• highlight any differences between V3 & V4,
• revisit the super army debate,
• discus what's happening with V5.

Analysing ADLG Player Numbers

Introduction

This carries on from the previous post with a much more detailed analysis of the data from the BHGS and ADLG rankings.

It is a more structured analysis using database techniques to correct the data (where possible) and tackle the quirks of the two data sets.

It aims to quantify the number of regular players, those attending infrequently, those who stop playing and also how many players haven't played since Covid.

ADLG: Global Rankings And Player Numbers

This is the last of my planned posts on ADLG. It's a postscript to my November post in which I announced that I was taking a break from ADLG for at least a year and follows on from my post about the BHGS ADLG rankings.

ADLG: A Wishlist For Version 5

Now that I've stopped playing ADLG I thought I'd write a "manifesto" of things that I would like to see changed in any future version. Please note I have no idea if a new version is planned and don't want to start any rumours.

Why?

ADLG has reached the stage where it can be considered a mature set of tournament rules, but the pool of UK tournament players hasn't changed markedly since 2018.¹ So, I would like to see changes focused on reducing the barrier(s) to adoption and tournament play.

From a strictly UK perspective, text clarity and improved online support would help both casual players and the large number of occasional tournament players.²

I don't think the small group of frequent tournament players are clamouring for change. They are more than likely confident in their understanding of ADLG's finer points (or they should be).³

However, a new version might combat groupthink where (regional or national) groups develop different interpretations of "how things are played".^{4, 5}

A Gap Year?

It's been nine years since I started playing Art de la Guerre (ADLG) and I have decided to take a break for the next year or so. I believe this is known as "stepping back" in current newspeak.

Latest BHGS ADLG Ranking (*)

In August I wrote a lengthy piece about the BHGS rankings and how strange they are if you're not a frequent competition player.

ADLG: King In The North (York, 18-19 Oct 2025)

Introduction

This was my fourth trip to this competition. I'd even designed my own event t-shirt which I wore with pride on both days. As usual the event attracted some very high ranking UK players

This photo shows Paul Dawson and Rob Taylor in their final round, top table clash. Rob wore his 2024 crown throughout the event but you can see that Paul was pushing hard to take his crown (literally).

Furious Charge In ADLG

Introduction

In February this year, I raised an issue on the Art de la Guerre Forum about furious charge, armour and missile support. A long, somewhat fraught, and very confused thread ensued.

To get an authoritative answer, I decided to contact the author, Hervé Caille. He answered the main questions and the thread became dormant. But for me there were still open questions worth clarifying. After a few more emails to Hervé all the issues have now been resolved.

Looking back at the thread some people had the right idea but some clearly didn't. So what I'd like to do here is explain why people were confused and document the resolution (not least for my own future reference).

ADLG: Northern League Round 4 (Manchester, 21 Sep 2025)

Introduction

This was my third Northern League event in 2025. It was still dark when I got up! Winter is coming. It was also quite cold. After breakfast things had brightened up for my 50 mile trip north on the M6 to Manchester. Thankfully, my journey was trouble free, and I arrived so early that Geoff Pearson hadn't even started putting the tables out.

I learnt here's nothing like a bit of light work to heighten the enjoyment of a pre-event cup of tea. Having said that, I had plenty of time to recover from my labours. The start was delayed; a few people were delayed and then had problems finding a parking space.

Musing On ADLG & BHGS Rankings

Introduction

Every once in a while I check the UK Art de la Guerre (ADLG) ranking provided by the British Historical Games Society (BHGS). Not least because I find them statistically quite intriguing if somewhat strange. This week I decided to dig a little deeper and do more than just note my latest ranking. I have written about rankings before in 2023 (see the postscript).

How the rankings work

They are convoluted and closer to an algorithm than commutative arithmetic:

• Players receive points based on where they finish not on the result of individual games.
• The points available differ by event: larger competitions offer more points.
• The rankings only contain the results of events in the previous twelve months.
• All results are included until the seventh event and beyond, when only the player's six best scores count.

Until players have attended their seventh event, their ranking records both their performance and their attendance (a tracker). For example: two players can have different rankings not because of performance differences but simply because one player has attended more events.

More importantly, below seven events the ranking is a "warts and all" measure. Beyond that, poorer results get dropped and the ranking begins to represent the best of a player.

Confused? I was and I still am. Read on for more detail and analysis. Be warned it's a longish read.

AI And Event T-Shirts

Introduction

I've seen lots of event t-shirts & polo shirts: both printed and embroidered. I began to wonder just how hard could it be? To find out, I designed, and had printed, something for this year's King in the North at Haxby in October.

The main problem was the artwork. I'm not really gifted with a pencil, so I had to turn to the new AI tools to compensate for my lack of skill.

Now read on for all the gory details.

Air Travel And Wargaming

Introduction

When first posted this article it was a request for help:

I'd like to hear tips from players who regularly travel to events by air. Especially, tips for packing figures and terrain in carry on baggage. How do you avoid damage to things like spears and lances?

I have absolutely no plans to fly to tournaments whatsoever, but I've always been intrigued how those that do carry their troops.

I asked the question on both the ADLG and the Society of Ancients forums too, as well as emailing a few players I knew to be regular travellers. Now, after a flurry of replies, it's time to thank everyone who took the trouble to reply and expand the post with the information and tips they provided.

ADLG: Northern League Round 2 (Manchester, 18 May 2025)

Introduction

In the midst of an unseasonal heatwave, I made the usual drive up the M6 to Manchester in the cool of the early morning. Shorts and t-shirts were the order of the day for many. At lunchtime I managed a rare photo of some wargamers enjoying the sunshine.

At the moment I'm only playing in competitions, so I have changed my approach to the Northern League. I've decided to be more adventurous, if not somewhat perverse, in my army choices.

ADLG: Northern League Round 1 (Leeds, 09 March 2025)

Introduction

It was dark when I got up on Sunday morning! Too early by half. I picked up Gareth Jones south of Warrington before crossing the M62 to Leeds. The weather was kind, as was the traffic, so we arrived 10 or 20 minutes before the 09:00 start. I had time for a cup of tea and a look round the excellent Hicks Hall, home of the Leeds Wargaming club since late 2020.

A Place For Everything

Introduction

A place for everything and everything in its place, or so the old saying goes. This applies to wargames rules just as much as anything else.

Rules writers have many options when placing key facets of the game. Sometimes they make a bad choice.

I was mulling over my last few Art de la Guerre (ADLG) games, when I stumbled across a striking example of misplaced rules.

ADLG is strange

I was trying to understand why I struggled to calculate melee scores between unarmoured units with two handed weapons (2HW) and units with armour.

After a lot of searching through the rulebook the penny finally dropped.

Messing With My Phone

Introduction

Whilst setting setup my wife's new smartphone, I (re)discovered the delights of FOSS accessed via F-Droid for Android.

I know this isn't for everyone but I wanted to install simple, and ad-free, radio and media players. Having found suitable apps I had a look round to see what else was recommended.

I ended up installing quite a few apps on my own phone; not just the players above but a plain text note app, a password manager and a peer to peer synchronisation tool. I've been looking for the latter for sometime and it's allowed me to sync my desktop & phone without using a (costly) cloud service.

ADLG Player Aids

Since 2021 I've been using my own, two page, game setup sheet at competitions. I've even played against people who use it regularly too!

ADLG: Vapnartak (York, 01 Feb 2025)

Introduction

The trip began (too) early on Saturday morning at 06:00. I'd decided to drive across the M62 to my first event of 2025. The venue was excellent, but finding it was not as straightforward as I'd hoped. Then again I wasn't the only one; others nearly missed the start.

After a strong cup of tea, I managed to get the drive out of my head and prepared to play.

ADLG Spreadsheet Hell

Introduction

My love of a good spreadsheet and a pretty data table has become far more widely known than I ever imagined. Recently, it led me into attempting something I don't normally do. It was true test.

I was asked to repair a spreadsheet from a UK competition. It wouldn't pass the online tests required before its inclusion in the Art de la Guerre (ADLG) database. The organisers had cut and pasted data leading to all sorts of errors on testing.

Checking the data for a five game event with 32 players was a task and a half! I also discovered that xls files produced by non-Microsoft programs invariably fail the online tests with multiple errors, suggesting differing file headers as the source of the problem.